Power Struggles
As energy prices fall, should you fix your bill? Think before you act, advises Paul Lewis
The price of heating and lighting our homes has just fallen. The price of units of electricity fell on 1 July by just under 9% and the price of units of gas by just over 9%. Make the most of it, though, because the latest forecast is that the price of both will rise in October by around 15%, and then stay pretty much at that level until March next year. In other words, prices are down a bit for the summer when we use less but will go up again by even more for the whole of next winter.
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Those figures are the price of each unit used. Overall, the regulator Ofgem says a typical fuel bill will fall by about 7% this month and the forecast from analysts Cornwall Insight is that it will rise by 12% in October. That is because the standing charge – the amount we pay just to be connected – has not changed in July: if you have both electricity and gas you are paying an average of £6.42 a week just to be connected before a unit of either has been used. For the first time the standing charge for people on prepayment meters has equalised with those who pay by monthly direct debit.
That leaves another group even deeper in the cold – those who wait for their bill to arrive every three months and then pay it by cash, cheque or card. They pay an average of £7.10 a week just to be connected and also pay a higher price per unit. Over a whole year these customers will typically pay £100 a year more for heating, cooking and lighting.
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Because prices may rise in autumn, the switching industry is swinging into action and encouraging us to fix our price for 12 months or longer. Working out if it will really be cheaper for any household is very difficult, and the answers from the switching sites can be confusing – switching is, after all, what they sell. Approach them with care; fixing your bill is a gamble on future fuel prices. Remember, you are betting against professionals who are experts in the market. So you will usually find – as in casinos – the house wins. And like the zero on a roulette wheel they usually protect themselves from losing with a penalty charge if you leave the table early.